January 08, 2009
In this week's Boston Phoenix, I have a politics column with two items. First, I consider the many new state senators representing Boston and the northern suburbs at this critical moment of fiscal crisis. Then, I ponder the potential openings of two at-large seats on the Boston City Council this year, and wonder whether they will go to fresh faces, or perhaps to familiar district councilors seeking to win city-wide?
You can read the article on-line here.
January 07, 2009
--Jeb Bush will NOT run for US Senate in Florida, to replace retiring Mel Martinez in 2010. Free-for-all will now begin. Meg Whitman, eBay honcho and inner-circle Friend-of-Mitt, WILL apparently run for Governor of California in 2010, to succeed the term-limited Terminator. Best line so far (not mine): She'd be the best at auctioning off Senate appointments. Democrat Doug Racine WILL run for Governor of Vermont in 2010 in yet another attempt to get rid of the immovable Republican Jim Douglas. Chris Matthews's brother says the MSNBC gabmeister absolutely, positively will NOT run for Senate in Pennsylvania in 2010, but admits that he doesn't actually know that from Chris or anything.
--A group trying to recruit Mike Ditka to replace Blagojevich as Illinois governor argues that the coach "won't be afraid to kick corruption in the ass harder than da '85 Bears beat down da Patriots in da Super Bowl!" Why must they always remind us of the ones we lost?
--The US House of Representatives adopted official rules for the new session that (apart from other highly-criticized power-consolidating alterations) for the first time uses gender-neutral language. Not only will "chair" replace "chairman," but Speaker Pelosi will no longer be officially referred to as "he." Seriously. What year is this? The "he"s will be replaced by "the Speaker." This took 111 sessions to figure out?
--Speaking of women who get to boss around people in Washington... news is that Nancy Killefer, who learned how to boss businesses into shape at MIT's Sloan School and Charles River Associates, will be named today Barack Obama's "Chief Performance Officer." This is a new position Obama made up during the campaign. As I understand it, the CPO will go through all federal agencies looking for waste, redundancy, and ineffective programs.
--The RNC chairman (no need to be gender-neutral there) race continues to entertain. Yesterday's sideshow was ostensible Republican Party leader, aka the President of the United States of America, sending out his official spokesperson to blast five of the six candidates. Oh yeah, they're getting closer to becoming a united party every day, you betcha. This public admonishment was for admonishing Bush for the auto industry bailout, which five of the candidates -- all but Bush-selected incumbent chairman Mike Duncan, natch -- went out of their way to criticize the Prez for in their debate Monday. Meanwhile, those who bet on "none of these six clowns" are seeing their payout chances improve; the latest rumor is that Norm Coleman, now that he's officially lost his Senate re-election, will swoop in to take the chairman job. I find it hard to believe that Coleman will be done suing over the results in time for the Jan. 28 vote; on the plus side, Coleman has now proven that he can lose a winnable election, which appears to be the criteria the party is looking for.
January 06, 2009
Maine's new congresswoman, Chellie Pingree, has been assigned to the Armed Services Committee, according to the list released today by Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (The Dem caucus still has to formally vote on it.) Not bad, freshman! I wouldn't have thought of her for that, but you take what you're given; I do think of her as being strongly anti-Iraq War, but my Portland colleagues might know more about her aptitude for the committee.
New England's other freshman, James Hines of Connecticut, gets financial services, which is almost a given for that district, which is thick with Wall Street bankers and traders.
Peter Welch of Vermont is following his chairman, Henry Waxman, from Oversight to Energy & Commerce. Other than that, no changes for the New England contingent in the House.
January 05, 2009
City councilor Mike Ross moved into the big office today, as he takes over as council president for the year. (Steve Murphy, elected vice chair, gets no new office -- where's the justice?) Ross also unveiled his new web site, which includes a scrolling "suggestion box" that could become one of the city's great online entertainments, if it was left unmonitored. And how great is the photo of Mike -- not the goofy one at the top, the one of him standing in the blazer and open collar (and jeans!).
Speaking of politicians online, Andrew Kenneally of East Boston is serious enough about running for city council at-large that he's now got a Facebook group. He's got some catching-up to do on Felix G. Arroyo's member count, though -- and by the way that would be a darn good photo of Felix if he wasn't in front of that brick wall. Andrew has already passed Doug Bennett, Bob Terrell, and some freshman at Suffolk U in members.
January 04, 2009
--I have only two comments about the latest Blagojevich shenanigans. First, Blago's speaking voice is an absolute dead ringer for Deval Patrick's, and ever since I noticed the resemblance it's all I pay attention to whenever I hear a clip from Blago's press conference. Second, while I admire Blagojevich's chutzpah, I have to think that a real, first-class political egotist in his position -- say, a Rudy Giuliani -- would have named himself to the Senate seat. Then we'd have some fireworks!
--Bill Richardson had to give up his Commerce Secretary appointment. Just when you think the Tufts Jumbos are close to respectability.... How much you wanna bet he's replaced by a Harvard alum?
--Will Michael Bennet of Colorado (via Connecticut's elite academic institutions) be the first GenX US Senator? I believe he was born in 1964, and the cut-off is usually considered to be 1965. I'm reserving judgment for the moment. I actually always thought John Sununu (the younger), born in '63, was pretty X-ish -- and of course he's now been booted for a genuine-article, 1947-born Baby Boomer, which is a very GenX-ish fate.
--Tomorrow at 1:00 the candidates for RNC chair debate, and you'll be able to catch it on live streaming and C-SPAN. Keep your eye on Ken Blackwell; he's nailed down some very big ultra-conservative endorsements, and it's starting to look like the race might boil down to him against incumbent Mike Duncan. Blackwell is promising to take the party directly off the right-wing cliff to irrelevancy, and there's a good chance the committee members will give him the reins and let him do it. I'll have much more about all this later, including the magnificent, Hannity-esque answers he gave to a 37-part questionnaire for the chairman candidates from ultra-conservative old-timer Morton Blackwell (no relation).
--My predictions about all things GOP in the last cycle were mostly spot-on, but I had a tougher time with the Democrats. One of my misses was my guess that Tim Kaine would be Obama's VP pick. Instead, it appears Kaine gets to be DNC chair.
January 03, 2009
Four weeks ago I picked on Jeremy Jacobs of PolitickerMA for boneheading the campaign-finance reports of Tom Menino and Michael Flaherty, making it seem to readers that those two had far, far less money in hand than they really do.
In that post, I pointed out that I had previously taken Dave Wedge of the Herald to task for the same thing, so I couldn't let Jacobs off the hook.
Well, guess what exact same error Wedge made in his weekly Pols & Politics column today?
And I had just been nice and refrained from ragging on Wedge for last weekend's P&P, in which he based his first item entirely on a PolitickerMA story, and cribbed the other two in straight cut-and-paste fashion from State House News Service reports. (The Herald noted at the bottom that SHNS "contributed to this report.")
Wedge used those SHNS items to mock the state legislature for wasting its time on purely trivial nonsense -- but trimmed out numerous substantive bills from the SHNS reports in order to make his point.
January 02, 2009
City councilor Michael Flaherty reports payments to Hildebrand Tewes, a national Democratic political consulting firm. Steve Hildebrand was one of the first people involved with Obama's Presidential run, and has been called "the chief architect of Barack Obama's grassroots strategy."
They do opposition research, grassroots organizing, and campaign strategy. Needless to say, Flaherty doesn't need those services to get re-elected to city council -- certainly not 11 months out from the election.
Flaherty has also retained EchoDitto, a national online-communications firm founded by the folks behind the Howard Dean campaign.
I'm hearing that Flaherty is likely to announce for mayor by February at the latest. Bear in mind that Menino's State of the City speech is on January 16th, so Flaherty might at least want to be talking openly about a possible run by then, so as to ensure himself plenty of visibility criticizing the speech.
January 02, 2009
Sam Yoon reports having $132,448 in his campaign account at the end of December. As I've noted, he recently appealed for money suggesting that to run for mayor he needed $100,000 by year's end.
January 02, 2009
As the '09 city election year dawns, we are already seeing the effect on city governance -- for good or ill -- of the likely mayoral challenge. How does Menino deal with the looming budget crisis, when every choice has political consequences?
It's no secret that Boston, like every other Massachusetts municipality, is on notice that it may be receiving far less state funding this year than its budgeting accounts for. That's got city officials scrambling to construct contingency plans, with different options based on how deep the slashing ultimately goes.
Those contingency plans demand very tough choices. Tough choices become much tougher during an election year.
As noted in this week's Phoenix editorial, just about the only thing our last two successful gubernatorial candidates had in common was the promise to bridge a looming budget gap without cutting services. "Both swore that they could perform this trick purely through efficiencies, consolidations, and other acts of prestidigitation," we write.
Deval Patrick, to his credit, seems to be facing the current fiscal reality without such fatuousness. But, he's not up for re-election yet, is he?
So, Patrick's conceded that his 1000-cops pledge ain't happening. But Menino isn't ready to concede that he may need to lay off 200 members of the BPD force.
A Globe report that such layoffs might be under consideration has quickly become a thing. A pretty big thing. So now the Herald sez Menino's "riled," and has his people insisting that it won't happen. That now puts Menino in a box: by reacting this way, he has validated the notion that it would be terrible to make those cuts. So now it will be even more difficult to do it if they're needed. Which in turn could put pressure on making cuts elsewhere instead, which would anger another constituency.
Meanwhile, it looks like Michael Flaherty has learned the lessons of Romney and Patrick, judging by the statement his office released condemning the idea of laying off cops: "Before we compromise the safety of Boston residents, this Administration needs to take legitimate steps to identify and eliminate wasteful government spending." Sounds a lot like "efficiencies, consolidations, and other acts of prestidigitation" to these cynical ears.
December 31, 2008
The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are barely three years away, so for your year-end enjoyment I am going to give you my rankings of the Top 25 Most Likely 2012 Republican Presidential Nominees.
Mind you, there are big question marks clouding the crystal ball. Most importantly, we simply don't know how good or bad the country and the Obama Presidency will look in a couple of years.
If the status quo is looking peachy keen, then you can expect some of the Bobby Jindals and Charlie Crists to wait for '16. Also, in that scenario the Republican contest would likely be a lower-participation affair, boding well for solid conservatives, and boding ill for moderates who need to count on independents and moderate Republicans voting in the GOP primaries (as John McCain did).
There are plenty of other unknowns, but that's never stopped me before. So, here are the candidates I believe are most likely to be the GOP nominee for President in 2012, ranked in order of likelihood. With very brief comments. Keep your eye out for them in New Hampshire, any day now.
1) Mark Sanford, Governor of South Carolina. The sane conservative choice.
2) Mike Pence, US Representative from Indiana. The insane conservative choice.
3) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. No strikes against him. Slogan: "If McCain had picked me, who knows?"
4) Rick Perry, Governor of Texas. If he thinks he can win re-election in 2010, he'll do it and then run for President. If he thinks Hutchison will beat him (see #9 below), he won't run for re-election, and then run for President.
5) Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts. He has to be on the list because it's possible that nobody else with access to serious funding will run. In the meantime, will he run for governor or senator of one of his various home states (which now includes California)?
6) Jim DeMint, US Senator from South Carolina. Sure acts like he wants it more than anybody else.
7) John Thune, US Senator from South Dakota. It's a shame that Daschle isn't going for the rematch in 2010. That would be a great race.
8) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana. Says he's not going to run in 2012. They're so cute the first time they say that!
9) Kay Bailey Hutchison. Assuming she becomes governor of Texas (see #4 above) she'd be in great position for it. Slogan: "A Republican woman who knows stuff."
10) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana. A rarity: a Republican who has recently won an election.
11) Bill Frist, former Senator from Tennessee. Consider yourself warned: the doctor is planning a comeback.
12) Jon Huntsman Jr., Governor of Utah. Mormon, but less creepy than Mitt. Would be higher on this list, but I assume that Romney will torpedo him as revenge for endorsing McCain.
13) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House from Georgia. Running for President is a great way to meet chicks.
14) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi. A real rarity: a competent Republican.
15) Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska. Would be lower on this list, but how do I know it isn't God's will?
16) Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida. He got married to a woman earlier this month, which is supposed to put the gay rumors behind him. Good luck with that.
17) Eric Cantor, US Representative from Virginia. He's Mr. Ambition. And conservative Christians don't think Jews are as weird as Mormons.
18) Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas. Have you noticed that he's been putting the weight back on? Remember when everyone was watching Al Gore's waistline for signs that he was getting in shape to run last year?
19) John Ensign, US Senator from Nevada. As chair of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, he cleverly cleared away much of the field of prominent Republicans.
20) Tom Ridge, former Secretary of Homeland Security. Great candidate, but his pro-choice position makes him unfeasible -- unless he can concoct a better magical sanctity-of-life conversion story than Romney did. Possible campaign slogan: "I left Homeland Security WAAAYY before Katrina!"
21) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida. Perhaps the next US Senator from Florida. Still, 2012 might be too soon for rehabbing the family name.
22) Gen. David Petraeus, CENTCOM Commander. An awful lot of conservatives seem to think this is a serious possibility, and I guess it makes at least as much sense as Wesley Clark did.
23) Lindsay Graham, Senator from South Carolina. Third most likely South Carolinian.
24) Don Carcieri, Governor of Rhode Island. Sure, nobody knows him. That's his upside.
25) Unknown business tycoon. I'm sorry to wimp out like that, but I think there's a legitimate chance that the nominee will be some extremely successful but relatively little-known executive -- a center-conservative version of Virginia's Mark Warner, or a Christian version of Michael Bloomberg -- who has never run for public office before. And I have no idea who it might be.
December 30, 2008
--Felix G. Arroyo is running for at-large city council in the 1st person plural.
--If you're having trouble getting ahold of the chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, it's because he has recently discovered Facebook, and is making friends by the dozens.
--While you're looking him up, feel free to friend me!
--Jacobs scoops that Scotland Willis is running for city council, but Universal Hub had already spotted it.
--Andrew Kenneally is acting serious about running for at-large city council.
--This is going to be a fun game of "guess the Boston-linked entertainer" for a couple of days!
December 26, 2008
In a contribution-soliciting email from Sam Yoon to supporters this afternoon, the city councilor taps directly into the notion that he might run for mayor in '09. This is a good ploy whether you're running or not, but if you get this direct and then don't run, donors might feel duped. Here's the pitch:
A lot has been written about next year’s mayor’s race. You may have even read some of the stories about who’s in and who’s out, and yes, my name is being mentioned. See the most recent Boston Globe article from Wednesday.
While I’m still considering all my options, the insiders say it takes a hundred thousand dollars going into next year to be competitive.
It looks like we may fall just short of our year-end goal.
Your help now will make the difference. 
That’s why I’m asking you to please make a contribution of $100, $50, and $25 - anything you can afford.
Your small donation will have a big impact.
You will be sending a message that we’re ready for new leadership with vision to move Boston forward.
Thank you, and may 2009 be a healthy, happy and prosperous new year for everyone.
December 23, 2008
Last year, Tom Menino raised $1,171,133 in campaign contributions -- a fairly impressive sum when you remember that the maximum individual donation in a calendar year is $500.
He's a little behing that this year. Menino's report for mid-December puts him at $828,647 for the year through 12/15, according to my math. He had already hit the million-dollar mark by that point in 2007; he then added another $146k in the final two weeks of Happy Holiday fun.
This year, he has already deposited just over $80,000 since the 15th -- but that still leaves him almost a hundred grand shy of a million for the year, and more than $250k shy of his '07 total.
Still pretty impressive -- but not knock-'em-out, scare-'em-from-running impressive.
The big question is whether a million represents just about all the dough he can squeeze out in a calendar year, or if there's another level he can take it to next year, with the election on the line. In 2005, his last election year, he raised $1.3 million, which was a very big bump up from his previous levels -- but can he go up yet another notch?
The answer is probably yes, especially if he calls in some fundraising help from folks he's helped out in the past (paging Secretary and Mr. Clinton!). Still, it's tough to boost the number when the max is so low -- you have to draw in new, untapped donors somewhere.
Because he maintains a small year-round operation (and because fundraisers cost money to host), Menino spends about $430,000 a year, so he hasn't exactly been stockpiling a massive war chest. He has roughly $1.5 million or so on hand.
If he boosts his fundraising by 50% next year, that gives him a total of about $3 million to spend for the year. That's almost double the $1.7m he spent defending his title in '05 -- but that was against weak competition. Maura Hennigan spent less than $700,000 that year, much of it her own. Michael Flaherty already has about $450,000 on hand, and from what I'm told he believes he can raise at least another million if he runs. And we have no way to guess what Sam Yoon can raise, from local-area progressives and Asian-Americans nationally, if he runs -- but I'd put his over/under well above Hennigan's figure.
Of course, the economic climate might not be favorable for fundraising next year, for anyone.
December 22, 2008
Congressional Quarterly's latest roll-call vote analysis confirms yet again what we already know -- that Maine's Republican Senators are out of step with their party.
In fact, they are the most out of step, and are the only two to vote against their party more than they vote with it. Olympia Snowe voted with the majority of Republican senators just 39% of the time, and Susan Collins just 46%.
I realize that it would be impolite of Collins to change parties so soon after letting the GOP spend a bunch of money helping her get re-elected. But Snowe could certainly jump. Jump, Olympia, Jump!
Snowe and Collins are likely to only grow further estranged from the Senate's Republican caucus. Only 12 other Republicans voted with the party less than 85% of the time. Of those 12, three have just retired (Warner, Hagel, Domenici), three have just been voted out (Smith, Dole, Stevens), another might be on the way out (Coleman), and one has announced he's retiring in 2010 (Martinez). Two more (Specter, Voinovich) face very difficult re-elections in 2010.
December 22, 2008
I agree with Dan that David Gregory's debut as Meet the Press host was inauspicious. Gregory did seem to go easy on Condi Rice. He also continued the Russert prediliction -- in both the interview and the roundtable -- of spending an awful lot of time reading quotes and showing clips in the process of getting around to asking a question.
More broadly -- and what I think Dan might have been picking up on -- is that Gregory seems like he will continue and perhaps accelerate what I think of as "conventional wisdom interviewing." It's not just a matter of horse-race politics trumping substance. It's that everything -- what topics to discuss, what questions to ask, how those questions get phrased -- always seems predicated on assumptions and opinions formed by the same circle of people.
That problem permeates NBC and MSNBC, and figures to only increase with the further elevation of Chuck Todd. Todd is a terrific political analyst. But he should be kept in that box -- he's a guy to interview about politics, not a guy to be leading the overall coverage.
(Side note: why do all of NBC's top on-air political people -- David Gregory, Chuck Todd, Andrea Mitchell -- have two first names? And would Chris Matthews get to be on the big network if he dropped the "s" to fit in?)
Todd was reportedly a finalist for the MtP job, which seems to me would have been a disaster: can you picture him asking serious, urgent policy questions of a major cabinet secretary, or foreign head of state? Now he will be the White House correspondent and MtP contributing editor. I suspect that and the Gregory choice are leading indicators of the direction of NBC's political coverage.
